PactDig Backtest Report
Historical fraud detection validation. We analyzed 8 major SEC enforcement cases to determine if PactDig's engine would have detected the fraud before it was publicly exposed.
8/8
Frauds Would Have Been Detected
Average detection lead time: 18 months before public exposure
Wirecard (WDI)FY 2018
Fraud: €1.9B fabricated cash
Exposed: 2020-06 (FT)
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: Cash>30% assets with zero interest
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
Enron (ENRNQ)FY 2000
Fraud: $74B shareholder loss
Exposed: 2001-10
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: SPE controlled by CFO with personal interest
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
WorldCom (WCOM)FY 2001
Fraud: $3.8B expense capitalization
Exposed: 2002-06
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: Capex tripling while revenue declining
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)FY 2019
Fraud: $310M fabricated orders
Exposed: 2020-01 (Muddy Waters)
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: Store margin 28.5% vs Starbucks 18%
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
Valeant (BHC)FY 2015
Fraud: Channel stuffing via Philidor
Exposed: 2016-03
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: Philidor=7% rev but 25%+ of AR
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
Nikola (NKLA)FY 2020
Fraud: Fake tech + staged demo
Exposed: 2020-09 (Hindenburg)
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: Zero revenue, $8B valuation on false claims
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
Theranos (THERA)FY 2015
Fraud: $900M investor fraud
Exposed: 2015-10 (WSJ)
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: 8 years, $900M, 0 peer-reviewed studies
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure
GE (GE)FY 2017
Fraud: $15B reserve deficiency
Exposed: 2019-08 (Markopolos)
🔍 How PactDig would have caught it: OpCF/NI ratio consistently below 0.7
⏰ Detection lead time: 12-24 months before exposure